Instapundit links to a round of stories about the Euro crisis, and includes this comment: “To predict the failure of the Euro was easy peasy: all that was needed was a slight familiarity with economics and the human race. To predict what comes next is much, much harder.” Yes. I think I can make one prediction with relative safety. The social-democracy policies that have ruined many European economies, and which currently threaten the stability of the whole European project, weren't paid for with deficiets alone. They were also paid for by gutting European military budgets, relying on the umbrella of US protection. You can't stand up a competent brigade overnight: it takes a long time, as the examples of the ISF and ANSF demonstrate. Non-Anglosphere NATO forces participated in these wars, so there is some small core of experience they can draw upon: but by the same token, it should be clear to anyone who participated in either war that the non-Anglosphere NATO forces could not have performed other than in a support role. Some of this is due to power-projection concerns such as heavy airlift capacity, but some of it is simply due to the weakness of these forces. So, the prediction: The already-common riots will evolve into insurgencies as the pinch becomes tighter, and the military forces of continental Europe are inadequate to stop them. What comes after that? An attempt at rapid re-militarization in Europe, with all the attendant chaos and violence that implies; pleas for a major US involvement to fill the gap while they try to stand up those forces. What comes after that? War, or nightfall.
Read the complete post at http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Blackfive/~3/08ElG0Swmt0/predicting-what-comes-next.html
Posted
Nov 25 2011, 08:43 AM
by
BLACKFIVE