With the Presidential decision to withdraw 10,000 troops from Afghanistan, the mission of the initial Counter Insurgency (COIN) plan of the surge just shrunk tenfold. Back in 2009 when the surge was initiated the extra troops allowed NATO to push to the north & south of Afghanistan constricting the enemy into stalemate. Now with the reduction of the limited 2 year “surge” forces, US troops will have to withdraw from those northern & southern positions to fall back and reduce operations which will release the pressure on the enemy. To think a Counter Insurgency (COIN) fight would only last 2 years is unrealistic. In fact COIN wars usually last much longer than 10 years. This isn’t a “shock & awe” type of war. Phases of Small Wars/COIN By doctrine a counter insurgency (COIN) fight is typically conducted in five phases: 1. Initial landing 2. Additional arrival of forces 3. Assumption of control of executive agencies 4. Routine police functions (training security forces) 5. Withdrawal (Small Wars Manual) Shortly after the attacks on 9-11, the US established troops within Afg (Phase 1) and the US established a foothold. Within the scope of the surge mission (Phase 2), NATO commanders requested a surge of troops to secure and expand the area of operations in order to reinforce the training of Afghanistan Security Forces (ASF) (Phase 3-4) mainly in southern Afg which would prep the eventual withdrawal of the majority of NATO forces (Phase 5). President Obama, Mar 27 2009-“ So I want the American people to understand that we have a clear and focused goal: to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future. That is the goal that must be achieved. That is a cause that could not be more just. And to the terrorists who oppose us, my message is the same: we will defeat you." US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said in October, 2008, "It's clear there is a need for more [troops] to try to deal with this increased security problem." President Obama, Mar 27 2009- "For the Afghan people, a return to Taliban rule would condemn their country to brutal governance, international isolation, a paralyzed economy, and the denial of basic human rights to the Afghan people - especially women and girls. The return in force of al Qaeda terrorists who would accompany the core Taliban leadership would cast Afghanistan under the shadow of perpetual violence." President Obama goes on to argue that the "surge" will help ensure that this does not happen. And, the argument goes, even if a surge increases civilian deaths in the short-term, it is essential to long-term security and peace for Afghans. Phase 4 must be completed before you can withdrawal With the reduction of the two year “surge” troops, the Taliban have not been defeated, nor have they been defeated in Pakistan. The security issue addressed by Gates isn’t completed as two years isn’t sufficient time to build the ASF to a level it should be within the COIN fight and now with the removal of troops out of key influential areas of Afg, local Afghan people will fall back under control of the Taliban contrary to what the President sent the troops in to do “long term security”. What does this tell those family members who have lost warriors in the past two years? Phase five-“withdrawal” can only begin once the “responsible native agencies are prepared to handle the situation without other support.” (Small Wars Manual) The surge was implemented to saturate the Taliban’s area of influence noted by the (red) areas in generic terms for example. The surge troops (blue) moved into those areas and established out posts dead smack in the middle of enemy territory and began applying pressure on the enemy knocking him back onto his heels and off balance. We began taking the momentum in Afg at this point and winning. During 2010, training with the ASF increased and progress was seen as more ASF began conducting patrols on their own thus building experience with the help of their NATO counterparts. Now with the reduction of those “surge” troops and the extension of reduction of additional NTAO troops departing Afg, the area of influence of the NATO forces will shrink to an even smaller spectrum of that before the surge (Phase 3) and the training expertise and development of the ASF will fall as the red (enemy) will grow countering the guidance set for a successful COIN war as defined by our doctrine to include the Small Wars Manual. The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who has 4,000 troops in Afghanistan, said: "France will begin a gradual withdrawal of reinforcement troops sent to Afghanistan The German defence minister, Guido Westerwelle, who has 4,800 troops in Afghanistan, echoed the French, saying he hoped "to be able to reduce our own troop contingent for the first time" by the end of the year. Poland, which has 2,500 troops, is also to reduce its presence this year, according to the country's head of security, General Stanislaw Koziej. Will the enemy regain the momentum? With the reduction of US troops, other countries are reducing their forces shrinking the breathing space and augmentation that they provided for the US force, requiring the US forces to do more with less. This void will not only allow the enemy to have breathing room it will allow them to roll from their heels to their toes and take back the momentum that reflects our progress during 2008. June 24th - A Taliban spokesman vowed in a rare English statement that “our armed struggle will increase from day to day,.” after hearing the US announced troop withdrawal. This is the President’s decision, make no argument about it, and as Commander in Chief, military leaders will salute smartly and execute as the disciplined warriors they are. However, some are expressing that although they gave the Commander in Chief (CINC) many options that had...
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Posted
Jun 26 2011, 09:15 PM
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BLACKFIVE