Jimbo -- who is much smarter than he lets on -- has some strong remarks on the need for a Grand Strategy. I'm not going to write a lengthy paper on the subject, since no one really cares what an incognito blogger thinks on these points. Still, let me sketch what strikes me as the best such strategy for us at this time. 1) Build an Alliance with China: There is almost nothing China wants that is non-negotiable for us. Almost all of their goals have to do with building -- or rather, re-building -- their ancient sphere of influence in Asia. They are walking away from Communism with every passing day, and returning to their ancient roots. They are not a free society, but they are far freer than they are given credit for being: for example, it is far easier to start a small (or large!) business in China than it is in the United States, given the regulatory environment here. Pursuing individual dreams is the every-day activity of the Chinese people, while we lose small farms and small businesses every day because the costs of our regulations are so high that no one but large corporations can manage them. China has serious weaknesses that they are doing their best to hide from the world. These are our leverage points: the one child policy, which will devastate their economic growth rates in just a few years as the population suddenly ages at a remarkable rate; the fact that they have been lying about their growth rates all along; the great debt we owe them and the great wealth they take in based on US sales, which is so large a part of their economic reality that they cannot walk away from it; and their intense cultural pride and need to be shown respect as an ancient power with a remarkable history. These things can all be used to push China to where we want them to be. In return, they can take over much of the management of central Asia. They've just built a hugely expensive railroad through their Xinjiang province, to be able to access some of those buried resources in Afghanistan. They can't afford for the region to fall into chaos such that they cannot extract resources. They also wish to compete with Pakistan, Iran and especially India for influence. We can leverage them to take over the Afghan mission, if we want that; or to assist in it, if we are bold enough to accept the People's Liberation Army as partners. They also cannot afford to let the global trade lanes collapse, so drawing them in as partners on protecting those lanes ends up drawing away their blue-water navy's capacity as fast as they can build it. All we have to do is... walk away from things they have no choice but to protect. For those reasons, we can manage them. We have a large number of confluent interests in stability of trade, of Asia, of Africa, and of the global order. The U.S.-China alliance should be the base of our grand strategy. 2) Gravity Wells in the Islamic world: I've written about Gravity Wells as a concept in global counterinsurgency. It is the basis of what I think we need to do to counter the Islamic insurgency. These wells can be more powerful than any Division we can send. They may be tribes, they may be religious or cultural movements, and they may be allied governments. 3) Europe is Dying: There is much more potential for instability in Europe than is commonly recognized. This is nowhere worse than Russia, which we are accustomed to thinking of as a danger because of their military forces. They are really a danger because of their collapsing demographics. Restoring Europe, including Russia, is a cultural project. The key to this project is the resurgence of the Christian churches. Faith, hope and love are why we have children. They are why we believe in the future. Faith and hope are the things that Europe and especially Russia has lost, and there is nothing that can replace them. We must encourage the rebuilding of these institutions, even as we look to Islamic gravity wells that pull people in the right direction. 4) Mexico and Points South: We need to defund the drug lords; the easiest way is to end the prohibition on currently-illegal drugs. Regulating and taxing these could produce new revenue streams as well. Mexico in particular is a danger to us, because of its proximity and corruption. Direct intervention is fraught with peril because they have spent a hundred years propagandizing their people to believe that the United States has designs on their sovereignty. That makes it very difficult for us to do anything directly; we have to go 'by and through' but not 'with' local forces. The loss of 'with' is going to be a source of tremendous difficulty. Either that, or we suck it up and take Mexico as a territory of the United States, and deal with the resulting insurgency. 5) Economics: We have to put an end to Social Security and Medicare as they currently exist. Medicare especially is an unconstitutional imposition on the states; Social Security is an unconstitutional imposition on the People. We all know that the game was that Congress would spend the surpluses in good times; now that the good times are over, we have to admit that the programs were never really going to be paid for. They weren't treated with the respect due to programs we thought necessary when they could be used instead as a source of revenue for pet projects. The money is gone; it's been spent already. Putting an end to these Federal entitlements, and restructuring in an explicitly Constitutional way, is a necessary part of our grand strategy. We have to put our financial house in order. 6) Force Structure: There are two keys to power projection in the future: drones and the Navy....
Read the complete post at http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Blackfive/~3/AkzxMIyAzco/grand-strategy.html
Posted
Aug 01 2010, 01:28 AM
by
BLACKFIVE