There seems to be widespread agreement that for us to succeed in Afghanistan our military efforts must be matched with a civilian surge to build a government and civilian infrastructure for the country. In a country that has never had a strong national government that is a huge challenge and one that thus far we have failed to match up to. This is trending in the right direction as the number of civilians working there has grown from 360 to nearly 1,000 but when contrasted with the more than 130,000 military that seems woefully small. Add to this a hostile relationship between Gen. McChrystal and Amb. Eikenberry and attempts to marginalize Pres. Karzai during the recent elections and you have problems. Things got so bad that Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke was essentially persona non grata in the country. The Obama administration seems to have recognized that demonizing the elected leader of the country is not going to make him more helpful and has made some public pronouncements of support. There will need to be more of those because, like it or not, Karzai is the only partner we have. The plan to clear areas of Taliban control and then turn them over to Afghan security and civilian agencies has been only marginally successful in its first iteration in Marjah. Now we are gearing up for a larger test case in Kandahar. This is complicated by the fact that President Karzai's brother is a major force and a huge corrupting factor in the area. We need to come to some sort of accommodation with him in order to enjoy any chance of success there. It would be nice to think we are going to clean the area up and stop the pervasive corruption, but we aren't. the sooner we realize that and start to buy off and co opt the players the better. This Summer's offensive in Kandahar is if not the last chance there, damn close to it. If it goes well we may be able to muster the support needed to reinforce that success. If not I think it is likely the President will begin his announced withdrawal during the Summer of 2011. The military has shown it can clear an area of insurgents, the question is can the needed civilian surge fill that void. We shall see.
Read the complete post at http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Blackfive/~3/m7va3KUU6nE/military-diplomatic-disconnect-in-afghanistan.html
Posted
May 10 2010, 01:26 AM
by
BLACKFIVE