Richard Fernandez of the Belmont Club writes a very well done essay on the present Afghanistan decision making process. He compares Andrew Sullivan's apologia with David Kilcullen's concerns about the time involved in reaching a decision. You can disregard the Sullivan part except to understand that he thinks it is just marvelous that Obama is taking so much time considering all the options and doing his homework before making a decision to change the strategy there. Fernandez reminds us of a very important point that seems to have escaped many as they await the decision. The strategy President Obama is planning on changing is his own. In March of this year he said: Good morning. Today, I am announcing a comprehensive, new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. This marks the conclusion of a careful policy review that I ordered as soon as I took office. My Administration has heard from our military commanders and diplomats. We have consulted with the Afghan and Pakistani governments; with our partners and NATO allies; and with other donors and international organizations. And we have also worked closely with members of Congress here at home. Now, I'd like to speak clearly and candidly to the American people. … So let me be clear … This is surely something the administration would like you to forget. And thus you hear all the nonsense that's been coming out lately (and has gotten pushback from former VP *** Cheney) that Afghanistan was just left adrift by the former administration. It is nonsense because the basis of the March "careful policy review" was that which the former Bush administration had done. However that's not really the point – the point is that a "comprehensive, new strategy" for both Afghanistan and Pakistan were announced by this administration. A new general, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, was named to implement that strategy. Now, suddenly, they're involved in reviewing that strategy. What, if anything, has changed? The event that has been blamed is the national election in Afghanistan. And, as mentioned, it has been coupled with the baseless claim that the Afghan war was left adrift by the Bush administration. The former problem, while serious, isn't a show stopper (see Iraq). The latter problem is simply untrue. What has changed is the politics surrounding Afghanistan. The polls show a deeply divided United States with the majority not favoring an escalation and many favoring we leave altogether. Given his domestic political problems trying to ram an unpopular agenda through Congress - which has succeeded in splitting his base as well as firing up the political opposition - he needs something with which to bring his base back in line. Afghanistan may be that issue. Consider too who he has involved in his review: VP Joe Biden who is pushing a minimalist "super ninja" strategy. He wants to use special operators and drones to kill al Qaeda. Let Pakistan and Afghanistan sort themselves out politically. Obviously if that means the Taliban takes over Afghanistan again, well, so be it. The fact that Biden was wrong about every aspect of Iraq as he suggested strategy then doesn't seem to matter. Also included is Sen. John Kerry. He's considered such a lightweight when it comes to military matters that he's usually ignored outright when he pontificates on matters about which he obviously hasn't a clue. He thinks Gen. McChrystal's plan goes "too far, too fast". The fact that Kerry has somehow managed to include himself and is apparently being taken seriously by Obama tells you how little Obama knows about any of this and how out of his depth he is on the issue. Lastly, there's David Axelrod, who claims he "doesn't have a seat at the table" when these policy reviews take place, but attends every one of them anyway. While he may not have an official seat at the policy review table, he owns the table of chief political advisor and Obama sits at that table daily. Axelrod's job is to divine the political winds and keep Obama sailing in the fair ones. Thus the strategy review. When Gen. McChrystal accepted the job to implement the Obama administration's new March '09 comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, he began what all new commanders do – a commander's review. In that review he takes the strategy and mission and he games them out. He attempts to ascertain, to the best of his ability, what it will take in terms of resources to accomplish the mission the strategy outlines. Once he has ascertained that, he submits his plan to his commander – in this case, directly to the President. It isn't a complicated process – the boss gives you a mission. You analyze the mission, determine what it takes to accomplish the mission and you go back to the boss with a plan and a request for resources. That's precisely what happened. However, in the interim, politics began to rear its head. In July, right in the middle of the assessment process, Obama's National Security Advisor and former Marine General Jim Jones showed up in Afghanistan and made it very clear that requests for more troops would not be a welcome event. Speaking to Marine commanders there he was quite clear: Now suppose you're the president, Jones told them, and the requests come into the White House for yet more force. How do you think Obama might look at this? Jones asked, casting his eyes around the colonels. How do you think he might feel? Jones let the question hang in the air-conditioned, fluorescent-lighted room. Nicholson and the colonels said nothing. Well, Jones went on, after all those additional troops, 17,000 plus 4,000 more, if there were new requests for force now, the president would quite likely have "a Whiskey Tango Foxtrot moment." Everyone in the room caught the phonetic reference to WTF — which in the military and elsewhere means "What the [expletive]?" Nicholson and his colonels — all or nearly all veterans of Iraq — seemed...
Read the complete post at http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Blackfive/~3/RiGJl6i91XY/the-coming-afghan-decision-how-much-is-driven-by-politics.html
Posted
Nov 17 2009, 01:30 AM
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BLACKFIVE