From the WaPo- President Obama is caught between two important constituencies as he recalibrates his policy in Afghanistan -- the generals who want more troops, and the base of his own party, whose tolerance for a worsening conflict is quickly evaporating. This is going to be a telling moment for President Obama. He made a lot of bold statements about Afghanistan and now he is at the point where he has to back them up. He is also in the position where the success or failure in Afghanistan will be seen as his responsibility. Had he not been so vocal during the campaign about Afghanistan I think it would have been politically tenable for him to shut down the war there and claim it was Bush's fault. Instead he used hawkish rhetoric about Afghanistan as political cover for a cut & run position on Iraq. He could not oppose both wars without risking being called a pacifist and now he is stuck. As the debate about Iraq played out we had a situation where the war was going badly, domestic support for it was flagging and many in Congress wanted to "end" the war. Then we had a fresh General with a new idea who said give me some more troops and we can win this thing, and he was right. Now in Afghanistan the war is going badly, domestic support is flagging, and many in Congress want to "end" the war.. We are about to get a report from a fresh General with a plan based on the lessons learned from the new idea and he is going to say give me some more troops and we can win this thing. The argument about this war will be played out in Congress and in the media (including us) and the real difference will be that Obama and not the hated W will be the architect of our strategy. His problem is that he has spent all the political capital he could beg, steal and borrow on his grand plan to nationalize our society. Plus I don't believe he ever really had his heart into fighting a long, hard war in Afghanistan anyhow. Add to that the disenchantment from his left wing with the fact that he hasn't done enough on their pet causes and you have an interesting problem for the President/Commander in Chief. It would be near impossible to go against the advice of the Petraeus/McChrystal axis if they come back with a request for 25,000 or some more troops. But it will completely alienate his MoveOn cohorts if he does so. My prediction is that when the request comes through he will give almost as many as asked for, but he will put a timeline in place for our efforts there. I think he will make the calculation that he cannot be seen as not supporting Petraeus and the troops, but that it will take too long to achieve anything that could be called victory. So he will give himself an out that comes before 2012 that allows him to pull the plug in time to get the left back on board for his re-election. I hope I am wrong, but that calculation makes the most sense politically and that is what he will use to make the decision.
Read the complete post at http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Blackfive/~3/J3RxH64xR7Y/from-the-wapo--president-obama-is-caught-between-two-important-constituencies-as-he-recalibrates-his-policy-in-afghanistan---.html
Posted
Aug 26 2009, 04:00 AM
by
BLACKFIVE