The situation grows.
A quick, unedited stream of consciousness so I can keep studying:
Yesterday violence spiked in numerous towns such as Louisville, Seattle, and Portland. Latest violence is not caused by any specific case such as the tragedy of Breonna. Dry forest. Any spark. We've got 'fireworks' flying 24/7. Forest getting drier.
Yesterday during a face-to-face, a law officer who works the streets in Portland told me they've had about 250 injuries to officers so far this year. (From various agencies.)
Some injuries are minor and others are serious. Such as hearing damage from fireworks. Lasers to eyes. Kinetic injuries from bricks, river stones, frozen water bottles, powerful slingshots. An officer suffered a projectile embedded into his shin, apparently from slingshot. A ballbearing from these slingshots is deadly. I saw them used in Thailand. For those who practice, a slingshot might as well be a gun with a silencer. Bearing to face. Lights out.
Yesterday, far away in Louisville, two officers were shot. Reports that 127 rioters were arrested amid the normal cacophony of violence and property theft, and destruction. This weekend likely will intensify. My sense from sources: Portland, as example, will see much violence this weekend.
Many folks asked me if I am heading to Louisville. Yes, later.
I do not chase battles. I will leave it up to media and bloggers. My value and strength comes in developing a sort of meteorological context useful for prediction.
Obvious now: America has fully formed hurricane that continues to strengthen. Others are forming such as the elections.
All this is part of a yet larger system and nobody can understand the situation in Portland or Atlanta or anywhere without great historical, current, and global context such as including Russian and Chinese information operations. (Recall that I have three books published in Japan on global information operations from China.)
Even the ascendence of President Trump is a blip in the larger context. Conditions for a Second Civil War have been building since about 1849 -- if you want to call that the first book end. You can always move the book end to change the story, but I think 1849 forward provides enough historical context for prediction purposes.
In short, World War II was a continuation of The Great War. Our current situation is a continuation of policy and conditions from generations long gone, along with intermingled contexts such as opportunists within the United States, and foreign enemies such as Russia and China.
My guess: 2021 will bring profound sea change -- rougher waters than 2020.
Ultimately, by my current sense, insofar as predicting 2021 violence -- election results are not the biggest factor insofar as violence. I predict serious violence no matter who wins. BUT...who wins the election matters in who wins the war.
And so, no, I will not chase every battle. Huge waste of resources with only incremental benefit. I will move slowly. Methodically. State by state. I may double back to places already visited, just as I did in Iraq, Afghanistan, Thailand, more. My general move will be methodical study to build context.
On Context: There is no truth without context. Most of the United States seems to be at peace now. As point of references, let's say 90% is peaceful now. Such was true in Iraq, Afghanistan, Thailand, and the United States during our Revolutionary and Civil Wars. Most of the areas were at peace. During the World Wars, most of the world was at peace.
An otherwise perfectly healthy patient often presents only one problem. Say, a brain tumor. The entire rest of the body is perfect.
If highways become unsafe for trucking in the United States, if mass arson, railway interdiction, and other infrastructure sabotage becomes the norm, we WILL seen political reaction. Often this backfires on the instigators. Other times they take 'Cuba'.
Bottom line is I have been here less than one week and will be in and out of the fighting, and 24/7 developing my network. I do sense at this time that a war is unfolding. But hold that thought. I take my own inventory. I trust my judgement far more than any media out there -- I am, after all, the most experienced living American combat correspondent, and my track record is strong. This work takes time to make right.
I will not say where I will be this weekend but it will be in the fighting to get the feel.
Unfortunately some gear was lost when the communists kicked me out of Hong Kong in February. Re-kitting now. New helmet alone is about $2,100. (For those interested in model: L110 Combat II, full-cut ballistic.)
I spent hours last night searching for new flame retardant/resistant gear. Napalm sticks to analysts. Forces of chaos are tossing firebombs, noxious chemicals, stabbing and shooting people, sometimes randomly. How many police have been shot this year?
Expect dox and kill in our future. Anyone like me will be a prime target. Most vulnerable when traveling, or loitering in one spot too long. Solution is armored communications mini-RV.
Soon, I will do a fundraiser for an armored vehicle for a mobile office. Sleep in the vehicle. Off-road when needed. Strong bumpers. Electrified doorhandles. All that. Low profile. You will not recognize it as armored without looking closely. I will not release details for safety reasons. Estimated cost is about $240k for a powerful and fully armored vehicle.
I do not want anything used. This is life or death gear. From reputable companies.
Save our Nation.
YOUR HELP IS VITAL!
PayPal Recurring or single:
https://www.paypal.com/donate/?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=B4PLDZYYFQM5U&source=url
Patreon recurring:
https://www.patreon.com/MichaelYon
VENMO: @Yon-Michael
Zelle: Michael.Yon@gmail.com
BitCoin: https://commerce.coinbase.com/charges/YBW6DVWG